Poll Positions

August 15, 2024

  • The nonpartisan Cook Political Report sponsored a poll of swing states (namely AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI), and is particularly useful in that it was conducted identically to a poll that was taken back in May. This means that we can see exactly how things have changed over the turmoil of the past 3 months. The biggest takeaway is that in May, President Biden was trailing former President in all but Wisconsin, where the polls were tied; but the updated numbers show things have almost completely flipped. Vice President Harris is now leading Trump in all but Nevada (by 3 points) and Georgia (tied). And this is before the Democratic National Convention, where Harris is all but certain to get a bit of a bump. LINK
  • Speaking of polls, the Kaiser Family Foundation released a poll that shows that 74% of women oppose Trump’s stated policy of leaving abortion decisions up to the states. This includes 86% of Democratic and 53% of Republican women. This could partially explain why Trump’s numbers are so poor with female voters — and Senator J.D. Vance’s statements on women-related issues aren’t making things any better. LINK
  • On a more local note, former WGAL TV anchor Janelle Stelson is challenging incumbent Representative Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District (covering Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York). Both have stated support for manufacturing growth in the area, but take different positions when it comes to taxation. Perry, a strong Trump supporter, hopes to renew the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (signed into law by then-President Trump) before it expires at the end of 2025 — despite the fact that nonpartisan groups have pointed out that the act has primarily benefited the already-wealthy and increased overall federal deficits. (Stelson has not yet stated a position on this.) Meanwhile, Stelson supports both the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, both signed by Biden and both with provisions to increase manufacturing in the U.S. (Perry has opposed both of these.) LINK

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