November 4, 2024

Tomorrow is Election Day, or as I’ve mentioned before, really the end of Election Season. There was some news from the weekend, with Vice President Kamala Harris making a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live, and former President Donald Trump making off-handed comments about shooting Liz Cheney and the news media. But I thought what might be most helpful is a look at what to expect tomorrow night, as far as when polls close. This is largely taken from an article by Zachary B. Wolf and Matt Holt on CNN: “Here’s how election night will unfold hour by hour”

As I’ve mentioned previously, though, it’s important to remember that final counts could take days, depending on how close things stand. Another thing to consider is that the way the United States is laid out will make things look more favorable for Republicans earlier in the evening, as there are a number of non-competitive, “red” states with sizeable electoral counts in the east that close polls earlier. Also, some states don’t have a single time when polls close (for instance, while most of Florida ends voting at 7:00 PM, the panhandle doesn’t close until 8:00), so the times listed below are when the last polls close in a state. I’ve also split them up based on whether polls are leaning Republican, Democratic, or truly in the toss-up category, with a running tally of Electoral Votes as the night wears on.

7:00 PM EST

At this point, polls will close in the first six states:

Party	States	Total Electoral Votes
Republican	IN, KY, SC	28
Democratic	VT, VA	16
Toss-Ups	GA	16

7:30 PM EST

Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina join in:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +21	OH, WV	49
Democratic		16
Toss-Ups +16	NC	32

8:00 PM EST

Polls close in 17 states, including Pennsylvania:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +74	OK, MO, TN, MS, AL, FL, ME*	123
Democratic +78	IL, ME*, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, Washington DC	94
Toss-Ups +19	PA	51

8:30 PM EST

Arkansas joins the fray:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +6	AR	129
Democratic		94
Toss-Ups		51

9:00 PM EST

Polls close in 15 more states, including the big ones of New York and Texas, as well as battlegrounds like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +73	WY, ND, SD, NE*, IA, KS, TX, LA	202
Democratic +54	NM, CO, MN, NY, NE*	148
Toss-Ups	AZ, WI, MI	87

10:00 PM EST

The Mountain States have their say:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +10	UT, MT	212
Democratic		148
Toss-Ups +6	NV	93

11:00 PM EST

The West Coast closes out the continental states:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +4	ID	216
Democratic +74	CA, OR, WA	222
Toss-Ups		93

Midnight/1:00 AM EST

Hawaii closes their polls at midnight, EST, and Alaska finishes out the night an hour later:

Party	States	Running Total EVs
Republican +3	AK	219
Democratic +4	HI	226
Toss-Ups		93

So as the night wears on, you can compare various networks’ projections of how many EVs each candidate is getting versus the chart above (with a reminder that each candidate needs 270 EVs to win), to see whether or not there is a projected “red” or “blue” wave.