Hold Your Horses

November 21, 2024

Gaetz Pulls Out

Former Representative Matt Gaetz has withdrawn his name from consideration for attorney general. This is really the first significant setback for the incoming administration of President-Elect Donald Trump, but given the increased rumblings about the embattled nominee’s sex trafficking and drug use allegations, it shouldn’t be a tremendous surprise. More and more Republican senators were expressing uncertainty that Gaetz would survive the confirmation process, and Gaetz himself expressed in his statement a desire to not be a distraction for Trump.

As for what’s next for him, that remains unclear. Immediately after being nominated for the top law enforcement position, Gaetz resigned from his seat in Congress — which, incidentally and certainly “coincidentally”, derailed an impending internal ethics investigation levied against him. Technically speaking, though, Gaetz was re-elected to serve in the next Congress which convenes on January 3, so arguably, he could return to Washington as a duly-elected representative.

11/22 Update: In a statement on Friday, Gaetz said that he will not be returning to Congress: “I’m still going to be in the fight, but it’s going to be from a new perch. I do not intend to join the 119th Congress.”

LINK

A cowboy pulls on the reins of the horse he is riding, who comes to a sudden stop in a cloud of dust and sand

AOC Steps Up to Defend McBride

Last night, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defended incoming Representative Sarah McBride and criticized House Republicans’ plans to ban trans people from using bathrooms on Capitol Hill that match their gender identity. GOP Rep. Nancy Mace just so happened to introduce the measure right after the election of Democrat McBride, who is the first openly transgender person elected to the House. Mace has made it very clear that the measure, which also has the support of Speaker Mike Johnson, is indeed targeting McBride. Ocasio-Cortez told reporters that the proposed restrictions are “endangering all women and girls” because,

“What it inevitably results in are women and girls who are primed for assault because people are going to want to check their private parts in suspecting who is trans and who is cis and who is doing what.”

–Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

It should also be noted that the New York lawmaker’s defense of the incoming Delaware representative came on the evening of the Transgender Day of Remembrance, a day that honors the memory of the transgender people whose lives were lost in acts of anti-transgender violence.

LINK

Harris Did Better Than We Thought

As states continue to wrap up the counting of votes from the November 5 election, there have been a few surprising notes that have come up. For one, while yes, Trump did win both the Electoral College and popular votes, his claims of a “mandate” in his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris are definitely looking shaky. Trump’s share of the percentage of votes has dropped below the 50% threshold, meaning that while he won with a plurality of votes, he did not achieve a majority of votes (at present, 49.9% to 46.8%). It’s also worth noting that the 76.8 million votes he received fell short of the staggering 81.3 million votes that current President Joe Biden received in the 2020 election. In fact, Harris, with the current total sitting at 74.3 million votes, has the third highest total number of votes of all time — around 5 million more votes than Barack Obama got in 2008, about 8.5 million more votes than Hillary Clinton received in 2016, and about 100,000 more votes than Trump himself got in 2020. (LINK)

With this as background Democrats are already starting to look ahead to 2028, and according to a new survey just released by Pick News/Echelon Insights, Harris is far and away the favorite to run again, with 41 percent of likely Democratic voters choosing her. In very distant second and third places are Governors Gavin Newsom of California and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, with 8 and 7 percent, respectively. Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg round out the top 5 with 6 percent each.

LINK


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Comments

7 responses to “Hold Your Horses”

  1. Independent Thinker Avatar
    Independent Thinker

    I’m glad Gaetz has withdrawn from the AG appointment. I feel like this whole thing was simply a maneuver to avoid the release of the ethics report, though (I’d love for it to be released, and any known ethical/law violations of any sitting member of congress). That said, you’re incorrect in stating he could return. He formally resigned. Once a member resigns, they cannot simply reclaim their seat. The vacancy must be filled through the established electoral process, which, in this case, is the special election process which DeSantis has already initiated.

    The claim of a mandate comes from a combination of the following:

    – He won the popular vote
    – He carried every battleground state, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia
    – Voters handed Republicans control of both the House and Senate, showing alignment with the GOP platform and a clear preference for Republican governance

    If the claim were based solely on the popular vote, one might argue it doesn’t fully justify a mandate. However, when combined with decisive victories in battleground states and a congressional sweep, the case for a mandate is clear and robust.

    1. Via Charlie Cook: “Self-proclaiming a mandate is a cardinal sin in politics; anyone thinking that voters gave Trump a mandate on Nov. 5 is sadly mistaken. Democrats are understandably shaken and disappointed by Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss, but Trump’s sweep of all seven swing states was hardly a landslide. His victories of 0.9 points in Wisconsin, 1.4 points in Michigan, 1.75 in Pennsylvania, 2.19 in Georgia, 3.1 in Nevada, and 3.32 in North Carolina were impressive yet still within the margin of error for most polls. Only his 5.54-point win in Arizona was worth a raised eyebrow.”

      “Given how few Democrats ended up having problems beneath the presidential race on the ballot, it is clear that the election was a highly focused, targeted repudiation of the Biden-Harris administration. Republicans seem likely to emerge from this election with about 221 or 222 seats in the House, effectively identical to the 221 they held going in, with five seats yet to be decided.”

      “In the Senate, while Democrats did lose their majority, three of their four losses were in states that Trump carried in 2016, 2020, and 2024, making it easy to conclude that God doesn’t intend for Democrats to occupy seats in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia at this point in time. The fourth came in the decidedly purple state of Pennsylvania.”

      1. Independent Thinker Avatar
        Independent Thinker

        Trump proclaimed a mandate — bad form, I agree.

        That said, the point stands that The People gave the Presidency, House, and Senate to the republicans. That’s a clear statement of the direction The People want to take the country.

  2. Independent Thinker Avatar
    Independent Thinker

    To modify my previous comment, Gaetz technically could return, but only if he participated in, and won, that special election.

    It seems very unlikely, though, since when he resigned he wrote, “I hereby resign […] effective immediately and I do not intend to take the oath of office for the same office in the 119th Congress.”

    It would put him in a very weak position to run after making a statement explicitly saying he wouldn’t take the oath for the upcoming Congress session.

    1. Via https://politicalwire.com/2024/11/21/could-matt-gaetz-come-back-to-congress/

      Punchbowl News: “Gaetz has resigned from the 118th Congress. But he was elected to serve in the 119th Congress. Gaetz’s resignation letter said he didn’t intend to take the oath for the new Congress in January.”

      “However, Gaetz could still be sworn in if he alerts the clerk of the House that he now intends to serve as a member come Jan. 3. It’s not clear what Gaetz will decide.”

      “Yet if Gaetz does return, he will come under the jurisdiction of the Ethics Committee once again. That means the Ethics Committee report becomes an issue again – and it makes the stakes that much higher for the panel’s Dec. 5 meeting.”

      1. Independent Thinker Avatar
        Independent Thinker

        I appreciate the clarification, I wasn’t aware of this.

  3. Independent Thinker Avatar
    Independent Thinker

    I believe Punchbowl news got it wrong. He resigned from 119, not 118. This would vindicate my previous statements on the issue.

    Source: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5141813%2Fmatt-gaetz-resignation-statement-read-house-floor=&utm_source=chatgpt.com

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